Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.385871 1.457725 1.532191 1.615303 1.705694 1.801264 1.910263
2025-11-09 1.259517 1.358925 1.466187 1.591185 1.733701 1.892156 2.083108
2025-11-16 1.176701 1.290611 1.416809 1.568203 1.746531 1.952024 2.209897
2025-11-23 1.124321 1.249740 1.391733 1.566252 1.777613 2.028894 2.355883
2025-11-30 1.087956 1.223411 1.379697 1.575962 1.819711 2.117966 2.519638
2025-12-07 1.042395 1.182880 1.347414 1.557626 1.824085 2.157993 2.620924
2025-12-14 0.996710 1.139524 1.308866 1.528359 1.811436 2.173506 2.688396
2025-12-21 0.962447 1.108193 1.283061 1.512885 1.814324 2.207757 2.781722
2025-12-28 0.945161 1.096651 1.280750 1.526406 1.854680 2.292984 2.951363
2026-01-04 0.922228 1.076926 1.266955 1.523818 1.872617 2.347642 3.079933
2026-01-11 0.908776 1.068397 1.266716 1.538494 1.913984 2.436544 3.265710
2026-01-18 0.890056 1.052337 1.255905 1.538163 1.933977 2.495314 3.409147
2026-01-25 0.869438 1.033688 1.241677 1.533436 1.948713 2.549031 3.552519
2026-02-01 0.843099 1.006819 1.215708 1.511480 1.937595 2.563341 3.632690
2026-02-08 0.818730 0.981721 1.191137 1.490248 1.926098 2.575748 3.709783
2026-02-15 0.803229 0.967754 1.180882 1.488448 1.942725 2.632112 3.867202
2026-02-22 0.792645 0.959895 1.178466 1.497413 1.975500 2.715534 4.080637
2026-03-01 0.773339 0.939799 1.158656 1.480482 1.967870 2.732902 4.173937
2026-03-08 0.751427 0.915642 1.132557 1.453440 1.943323 2.720776 4.209855
2026-03-15 0.734982 0.898466 1.115615 1.439133 1.937810 2.739782 4.307417
2026-03-22 0.728463 0.894560 1.116932 1.451635 1.974790 2.832630 4.561095
2026-03-29 0.717311 0.883997 1.108542 1.449242 1.987690 2.884464 4.736675
2026-04-05 0.711845 0.881079 1.110791 1.462807 2.026840 2.984821 5.027243